What role does modeling play in risk assessment?

Modeling plays a crucial role in risk assessment by providing a systematic way to analyze potential exposure pathways and the associated health outcomes from those exposures. By employing mathematical and statistical techniques, modeling allows risk assessors to simulate various scenarios, estimating how frequently and at what levels individuals might be exposed to hazardous substances. It also helps in predicting the likelihood of adverse health effects resulting from those exposures.

This predictive capability is essential not only for understanding current risks but also for projecting how changes in environmental conditions, policies, or public health interventions might impact those risks over time. Thus, modeling informs decision-makers about potential health impacts and supports effective risk management strategies, ensuring resources are allocated appropriately to protect public health.

In contrast, while modeling may contribute to addressing uncertainties (though it does not eliminate them entirely), streamline processes, or assist in regulatory contexts, its primary value in risk assessment resides in its predictive power regarding exposure and health outcomes.